The French real estate market is going through a phase of rebalancing. Transaction volumes are gradually picking up, credit rates remain at attractive levels, and new tax rules are changing investors’ calculations. However, a less visible factor is weighing on new prices: tensions in the supply chains of construction materials, fueled by geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
Geopolitical tensions and construction materials: a concrete risk on new prices in France
Have you noticed that delivery times for new programs have been extending for several months? Part of the explanation lies far from French construction sites.
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Tensions related to the conflict in Iran are disrupting maritime routes that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This area remains a strategic passage for the transport of raw materials, including steel and certain components used in construction. When freight slows down or becomes more expensive, the price of construction materials mechanically increases at the end of the chain.
To track these developments over the weeks, the market news on Immobilier Hebdo allows for real-time cross-referencing of economic and real estate data.
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Developers betting on hybrid wood-steel modular constructions are particularly exposed to these price increases. According to the French Building Federation, a significant share of new projects in Île-de-France uses this type of construction. Modular construction reduces timelines and operating costs, but it relies on a steady supply of steel and calibrated timber.
For a buyer in the new market, the direct consequence is simple: the prices displayed at the start of a program may change before delivery. Checking the price revision clauses in the reservation contract becomes a reflex to adopt before signing.
Logistics real estate in France: the segment accelerating off residential radars
The residential market captures most of the attention, but the logistics segment is experiencing notable acceleration this year.
The CBRE France report “MarketView Logistics Q1 2026” confirms a significant increase in investments in warehouses located on the outskirts of major cities. The main driver remains the rise of e-commerce, which demands storage spaces ever closer to consumption areas.
What changes in 2026 is the environmental requirement. Sustainable warehouses are becoming the norm for institutional investors. Certified buildings (BREEAM, HQE) attract more stable returns than traditional residential real estate. For individuals diversifying through specialized SCPI, this is an indicator to watch.
Green Pinel scheme and energy renovation: what changes for rental investors
Since January 2026, the “green” Pinel scheme also applies to deep energy renovations, not just new constructions. Decree No. 2026-127 of January 8, 2026, opens the tax advantage to properties that achieve an energy performance rating (DPE) of A or B after work.
Specifically, an investor who buys a property rated D or E, finances a heavy renovation (insulation, heating, ventilation), and achieves level B can benefit from the tax reduction. Here are the conditions to remember:
- The property must achieve a DPE of A or B after the work, certified by an energy audit conducted by a certified diagnostician
- Work must be completed within 24 months after acquisition, or the tax benefit will be lost
- The property must be rented as the tenant’s primary residence, with rent and income ceilings identical to the classic Pinel
This extension modifies the rental investment strategy. Until now, the Pinel directed purchases towards new properties, often in tight zones and at high prices. The renovation version allows targeting older properties at lower prices, in medium-sized cities where rental demand is increasing.
French real estate market compared to Germany: a less brutal deceleration
To understand where France stands, a comparison with Germany is enlightening. According to the Savills report “European Residential Market Outlook 2026,” German residential transaction volumes have stagnated since the fourth quarter of 2025. Stricter rental regulations across the Rhine are slowing down investors.
In France, the situation is different. The recovery remains gradual, without euphoria, but transactions are picking up. Competitive credit rates support demand from first-time buyers. The French market also benefits from rental regulations perceived as more predictable, despite recent adjustments regarding energy-inefficient properties.
This difference in dynamics has a consequence for foreign investors: France is attracting more European capital than Germany this year. Cities like Lyon, Bordeaux, or Nantes are capturing the attention of funds seeking stable rental yields.
Real estate market 2026: signals to watch in the second half
Several elements will influence the trajectory of prices and sales volumes in the coming months:
- The evolution of maritime freight costs, directly linked to tensions in the Middle East, which conditions the price of materials and thus new prices
- The speed of adoption of the renovated green Pinel by investors, which could redirect part of the demand towards older properties
- The decisions of the ECB on key rates, which affect the borrowing capacity of French households
- The pace of logistics construction starts, a barometer of institutional investors’ confidence
This year’s real estate market is not just a question of rising or falling prices. Underlying trends, from geopolitics to energy regulation, are reshaping the balances. Hidden costs, tax schemes, and supply risks now weigh as heavily as the price per square meter in the purchasing decision.